Chemical and Pathogen Exposure Through Recreational Waters: Forecasting Beach Conditions

Models can be useful for describing, explaining, and predicting variations in the near-shore presence of pathogen concentrations. Real-time forecasting may help resolve the delayed notification problems inherent with the present approach to recreational water-quality monitoring. Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) are developing statistical models that use weather and water conditions to more accurately forecast water-quality conditions. This information will ultimately serve to better protect human health and enjoyment of our nation’s waters.

Highlights

• BacteriAlert Program, Chattahoochee Riverway Project -- A web site that provides recent E. coli counts and health advisories for two locations on the Chattahoochee River.
• Implementing a System for "Nowcasting" Bacteria Levels and Beach Advisories -- A current project (2004-2006) that involves the implementation of an Internet-based nowcasting system for presenting beach advisories based on a predictive model for E. coli at a Lake Erie Beach.
• Escherichia coli at Ohio Bathing Beaches --Distribution, Sources, wastewater Indicators, and Predictive Modeling: USGS Water-Resources Investigations Report WRIR02-4285
• Solar and Temporal Effects on Escherichia coli Concentration at a Lake Michigan Swimming Beach: Applied Environmental Microbiology
• Elements of a Predictive Model for Determining Beach Closures on a Real Time Basis: The Case of 63rd Street Beach Chicago: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
• Characterization and Statistical Modeling of Bacterial (Escherichia coli) Outflows from Watersheds that Discharge into Southern Lake Michigan: Environmental Monitoring and Assessmen
• Beach Monitoring Research
• A power point presentation on the Effects of Hydrologic, Biological, and Environmental Processes on Sources and Concentrations of Fecal Bacteria in the Cuyahoga River: USGS Water-Resources Investigations Report WRIR98-4089. (Bibliography of USGS Publications on Geology and Water in Ohio)

Publications

• Models for Predicting Recreational Water Quality at Lake Erie Beaches: USGS Scientific Investigations Report SIR2006-5192
• Procedures for Developing Models To Predict Exceedances of Recreational Water-Quality Standards at Coastal Beaches: USGS Techniques and Methods 6-B5
• Nowcast Modeling of Escherichia coli Concentrations at Multiple Urban Beaches of Southern Lake Michigan: Water Research
• About S.A.F.E. (Swimming Advisory Forecast Estimate): A Pilot Modeling Application
• Elements of a Predictive Model for Determining Beach Closures on a Real Time Basis: The Case of 63rd Street Beach Chicago: Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
• Escherichia coli sampling reliability at a frequently closed Chicago beach: Monitoring and management implications: Environmental Science and Technology
• Characterization and Statistical Modeling of Bacterial (Escherichia coli) Outflows from Watersheds that Discharge into Southern Lake Michigan: Environmental Monitoring and Assessmen
• Characterization of E. coli Levels at 63 rd Street Beach: Report of the City of Chicago, 2001

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U.S. Department of the Interior | U.S. Geological Survey
URL: http://health.usgs.gov/rec_waters/modeling.html
Page Contact Information: Herb Buxton
Page Last Modified: 16-May-2012@14:03