Chemical and Pathgogen Exposure Through Recreational Waters: Forecasting Beach Conditions

Models can be useful for describing, explaining and predicting variations in the near shore presence of pathogen concentrations. Real-time forecasting may help resolve the delayed notification problems inherent with the present approach to recreational water quality monitoring. Scientists at the USGS are developing statistical models that use weather and water conditions to more accurately forecast water quality conditions. This information will ultimately serve to better protect human health and enjoyment of our nation’s waters.

Highlights

• Chattahoochee Riverway Project, BacteriALERT Program. A web site that provides recent E. coli counts and health advisories for two locations on the Chattahoochee River.
• Implementing a system for nowcasting bacteria levels and beach advisories. A current project (2004-2006) that involves the implementation of an Internet-based nowcasting system for presenting beach advisories based on a predictive model for E. coli at a Lake Erie Beach.
• Forecasting Bacteria Levels at Bathing Beaches in Ohio
• Solar and Temporal Effects on Escherichia coli Concentration at a Lake Michigan Swimming Beach RL Whitman, MB Nevers, GC Korinek, MN, Applied Environmental Microbiology (2004) 70: 4276-4285.
• Elements of a Predictive Model for Determining Beach Closures on a Real Time Basis: The Case of 63rd Street Beach Chicago. By: Greg A. Olyphant; Richard L. Whitman Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Volume 98, Issue 1, Nov 2004.
• Characterization and Statistical Modeling of Bacterial ( Escherichia Coli) Outflows from Watersheds that Discharge into Southern Lake Michigan By: Greg A. Olyphant; Judith Thomas; Richard L. Whitman; Denver Harper, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Volume 81, Issue 1, Jan 2003 Pages: 289-300.
• Escherichia coli at Ohio bathing beaches—distribution, sources, wastewater indicators, and predictive modeling. Francy, D.S., Gifford, A.M., and Darner, R.A., 2003: Water-Resources Investigations Report 02-4285.
• A power point presentation on the Effects of hydrologic, biological, and environmental processes on sources and concentrations of fecal bacteria in the Cuyahoga River DN Myers, GF Koltun, DS Francy, 1998.
  • Publication by: Myers, D.N., Koltun, G.F., and Francy, D.S., 1998, U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 98-4089, 45 p. (Abstract)

Publications

• Developing predictive models at five Lake Erie beaches, by Donna S. Francy, Robert A. Darner, and Erin E. Bertke, USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2006-5192, 13 p.
• An on-line "how-to" manual on developing predicitve models for coastal beaches, by Donna S. Francy and Robert A. Darner, USGS Techniques and Methods 6-B5, 34 p.
• owcast Modeling of Escherichia coli Concentrations at Multiple Urban Beaches of Southern Lake Michigan. By Meredith B. Nevers and Richard L. Whitman. Water Research, Vol. 39, Issue 20, December 2005 Pages 5250-5260.
• Project SAFE (Swimming Advisory Forecast Estimate): A Pilot Modeling Application. By Richard L. Whitman 2005.
• Elements of a Predictive Model for Determining Beach Closures on a Real Time Basis: The Case of 63 rd Street Beach Chicago. By: Greg A. Olyphant and Richard L. Whitman, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 98, Issue 1, November 2004 Pages 175-190.
• Escherichia coli sampling reliability at a frequently closed Chicago beach: Monitoring and management implications . By: Richard L. Whitman and Meredith B. Nevers. Environmental Science and Technology 2004, Vol. 38, Issue 16 2004 Pages 4241-4246.
• Characterization and Statistical Modeling of Bacterial (Escherichia coli) Outflows from Watersheds that Discharge into Southern Lake Michigan By: Judith Thomas; Richard L. Whitman; Denver Harper, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Vol. 81, Issue 1, January 2003 Pages 289-300.
• Characterization of E. coli Levels at 63 rd Street Beach. By: Richard L. Whitman, Thomas G. Horvath, Maria L. Goodrich, Meredith B. Nevers, Mark J. Wolcott, and Sheridan K. Haack, Report to the City of Chicago 2001.

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